Carroll power is key to England victory
PUBLISHED: 22:10 GMT, 21 June 2012 | UPDATED: 23:30 GMT, 21 June 2012
I fancy England strongly and I'm certain they will win if Andy Carroll is involved.
Having watched all of Italy's matches in this championship, I feel they are all over the place at the back. It is the weakest Italian back line I can remember, whether they play three at the back or four.
Andy Carroll: can cause havoc
The quality of England's crosses could well determine the game. There is no point launching the ball in long and asking their forwards to get involved in a fight.
The excellent Steven Gerrard and Ashley Young need to create space and then bang it in with quality and accuracy.
The Italians will block, pull shirts and try every trick in the book. They got away without giving away at least two blatant penalties against Croatia, when I was disappointed with the English referee, Howard Webb.
If they are allowed a similar tactic against England, they can be effective defending set plays, when they can get organised and set themselves, but from balls crossed in from open play, Carroll could have a field day.
Weak link: Italy are all over the place at the back
It might be he has to make his impact from the bench, with England preferring Danny Welbeck. The Italians would prefer that, too.
If Carroll has to be patient, once he gets on, he shouldn't go looking for contact and confrontation.
They will get close and in his face but, if he plays as he did against Sweden, he can punish them.
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